Migration in the Face of Climate Change: Assessing the Potential of Ultra-Poor Graduation Programs

While macro models estimate high migration flows in response to climate change, little is known about why individual households migrate. This project studies the climate-driven migration decisions of ultra-poor agrarian households, who are among the most climate-vulnerable, and the role of poverty-alleviation programs in these decisions. Researchers will develop a discrete-choice model of the decision to migrate and apply it to a hallmark poverty-alleviation program: the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) program. Researchers aim to answer whether UPG programs insure households against climate stress in the short-run, and whether, and how, this deters or enables optimally timed migration to climate-resilient urban areas. To discipline the model, researchers will build on an ongoing J-PAL evaluation of UPG programs in Upper Egypt, by collecting a five-year endline to identify key model parameters.