Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Linked Agricultural Advisory to Boost Coffee Farmer Productivity in Karnataka, India

Weather uncertainty is a significant source of production risks, and is increasingly salient in the context of climate change. Short- to medium-range forecasts could help farmers optimize the timing of agricultural practices, increasing returns to agricultural investment. Yet, smallholder farmers in most low- and middle-income countries do not have access to highly localized, accurate forecasts for weather conditions relevant for agricultural decision-making. This study will seek to evaluate the impact of localized, relevant weather forecasts provided to coffee farmers in India via mobile phones. The goal is to understand (i) how farmers update their subjective weather expectations in response to more localized and relevant forecasts and (ii) how reducing weather uncertainty via real-time forecasts and forecast-based advice affects farmers' agricultural decisions, investments, and outcomes.